Thursday, August 20, 2009

Simple Prose On Seasonal Adjustments

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT REALLY SAID ABOUT US HOUSING - New York Post:

"A seasonally-adjusted house is one that exists only in the government's fertile statistical imagination.
And that imagination is spewing out a whole lot of deceptive economic numbers because normal seasonal adjustments are being thrown off by the abnormal nature of the current economy."

Seasonal adjustments assume what happened before happens again. A black swan would make these adjustments gibberish.

Mr. Crudele provides an easy to understand dismantling of the new residential starts figure.

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